Justin R. Pierce
Email: justin.r.pierce@frb.gov

Short Bio

I am an economist at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.  My research focuses on U.S. firms engaged in or affected by international trade.  Prior to beginning my graduate studies, I worked in the private sector, advising domestic and foreign firms involved in antidumping and safeguard investigations.

This is a personal website.  Any results or conclusions in the research presented on this website are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve System.

You can also visit my official website and my Google Scholar page.

Employment

2016 - Present     Principal Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2014 - 2016        Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2011 - 2014         Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2009 - 2011         Economist, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau
2001 - 2003         Economic Analyst, Georgetown Economic Services, LLC

Affiliations

Member, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth
Special Sworn Status Researcher, U.S. Census Bureau

Education

2009   Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University
2005   M.A., Economics, Georgetown University
2001   B.A., Economics, International Affairs, The George Washington University


Working Papers

Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S. Industries and Establishments. 2017.  Joint with Peter Schott.  NBER Working Paper 24071.

Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties. 2017.  Joint with Peter Schott.  NBER Working Paper WP22849. 
Evidence for the Effects of Mergers on Market Power and Efficiency. 2016.  Joint with Bruce Blonigen.  NBER Working Paper WP22750. 

Did Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections? 2017.  Joint with Yi Che, Yi Lu, Peter Schott and Zhigang Tao.  NBER Working Paper WP22178.

Trade Policy and the Structure of Supply Chains. 2015.  Joint with Sebastian Heise, Georg Schaur and Peter Schott.

Trade Liberalization and International Sourcing of Inputs. 2012.

Publications

New Perspectives on the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment. 2018.  Journal of Economic Perspectives 32(2): 47-72.  Joint with Teresa Fort and Peter Schott.  NBER Working Paper WP24490.

The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment. 2016. American Economic Review 106(7): pp. 1632-1662.  This is a revised version of NBER Working Paper WP18655.  Published version and appendix.  Joint with Peter Schott. 

Antidumping Duties and Plant-Level Restructuring. 2013. Review of Industrial Organization 42 (4): pp. 435-447.  Invited Submission.  The published version is available here.

Are All Trade Protection Policies Created Equal? Empirical Evidence for Nonequivalent Market Power Effects of Tariffs and Quotas. 2013. Journal of International Economics 89 (2): pp. 369-378.  NBER Working Paper (WP16391).  Joint with Bruce Blonigen, Benjamin Liebman and Wesley Wilson.  The published version is available here.

A Concordance Between U.S. Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product Classes and Industries. 2012. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 37(1-2): pp. 61-96.  NBER Working Paper WP15548.  Joint with Peter Schott.  Data Appendix.

Concording U.S. Harmonized System Codes Over Time. 2012. Journal of Official Statistics 28 (1): pp. 53-68.  NBER Working Paper WP14837.  Joint with Peter Schott. Data Appendix.

Plant-Level Responses to Antidumping Duties: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturers. 2011. Journal of International Economics. 85 (2): pp. 222-233.  The published version is available here.

Applied and Other Research

Some Characteristics of the Decline in Manufacturing Capacity Utilization. 2018.  FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 1, 2018, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2162. Joint with Emily Wisniewski.

The Distributional Consequences of US Trade Liberalization with China. 2017. In Simon Evenett (Ed.), Cloth for Wine? The Relevance of Ricardo's Comparative Advantage in the 21st Century, CEPR Press.  Joint with Peter Schott.

Making Sense of Africa's Infrastructure Endowment: A Benchmarking Approach. 2009. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper (WBPS4912).  Joint with Vivien Foster and Tito Yepes.

Productive Infrastructure and Logistics Services for Competitiveness. 2006.  Joint with Tito Yepes.  Chapter in Infrastructure Service Provision in El Salvador: Fighting Poverty, Resuming Growth.

Costa Rica's Infrastructure: Contributor or Bottleneck to Growth? 2006.  Joint with Tito Yepes.  Chapter in Costa Rica Country Economic Memorandum: The Challenges for Sustained Growth.

Presentations by Paper

"Trade Liberalization and Investment: Evidence from the U.S. Granting of PNTR to China" - NBER Trade and Labor Markets Conference (10/21/2017); Center for Economic Studies (4/12/2018); Washington Area International Trade Symposium (4/27/2018)

"Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties" - Washington International Trade Group (1/21/2016); The World Bank (02/23/2016); U.S. Centers for Disease Control (02/25/2016); ERWIT Copenhagen (06/01/2016); College of William and Mary (09/16/2016); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (02/24/2017); Tulane University (03/10/2017); Dartmouth College (05/23/2017); University of Cambridge (09/29/2017); American University (01/29/2018)

"Trade Policy and the Structure of Supply Chains" - University of Oregon (10/13/2015); Inter American Development Bank (06/17/2016)

"Evidence for the Effect of Mergers and Acquisitions on Market Power and Efficiency" - Stanford RDC Conference (9/18/2015); Midwest Economic Association (04/02/2016); IIOC (04/16/2016); Aarhus University (11/29/2016); U.S. Department of Justice (05/16/2017)

"The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment" - Georgetown University (10/24/2014); Renmin University of China (04/25/2014); Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (04/22/2014); Syracuse University (12/2/2013); University of Richmond (11/18/2013); Empirical Investigations in International Trade, University of Virginia (10/19/2013); Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data (09/18/2013); NBER Summer Institute - International Trade and Investment (07/11/2013); CESifo Conference on the Economics of Firm Exporting (04/26/2013); University of Hong Kong (02/27/2013); U.S. International Trade Commission (02/21/2013); The George Washington University (02/12/2013); Washington, DC International Trade Research Group (01/31/2013); Southern Economic Association (11/21/2011); Council of Economic Advisors, Executive Office of the President (07/07/2011); Georgetown Center for Economic Research (06/02/2011); Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (05/13/2011); Advances in International Trade: Trade Empirics (11/19/2010); Center for Economic Studies (10/21/2010).

"Are All Trade Protection Policies Created Equal? Empirical Evidence for Nonequivalent Market Power Effects for Tariffs and Quotas" - University of Wisconsin Milwaukee (04/27/2012); University of Wisconsin Whitewater (04/25/2012); University of Virginia (08/31/2011); Southern Economic Association Meetings (11/21/2010); Vassar College (10/25/10); Midwest International Trade and Theory Meetings (09/17/2010); Center for Economic Studies (04/01/2010).

"Plant-Level Responses to Antidumping Duties: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturers" - Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (04/24/2014); Federal Reserve Board of Governors (05/27/2011); Midwest Economic Association (03/21/2010); Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data Meetings (10/02/2009); Econometric Society North American Summer Meetings (06/04/2009); Midwest International Economics Group (05/01/2009); George Washington University/World Bank Antidumping Conference (04/09/2009); Georgetown University (10/20/2008); Center for Economic Studies (10/02/2008).

Trade Liberalization and International Sourcing of Inputs - Southern Economic Association (11/16/2012).