Justin R. Pierce
Email: justin.r.pierce@frb.gov
Short Bio
I am
an economist at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. My research focuses on the implications of
changes in international trade policy for individuals,
firms, and regions. Prior
to beginning my graduate studies, I worked in the private
sector, advising domestic and foreign firms involved in
antidumping and safeguard investigations.
This is a personal website. Any results or conclusions
in the research presented on this website are my own and do
not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve
System.
You can also visit my official
website and my Google
Scholar page.
Employment
2023 -
Present Section
Chief, Federal Reserve
Board of Governors
2022 - 2023 Group Manager, Federal Reserve
Board of Governors
2016 - 2022 Principal
Economist, Federal Reserve Board
of Governors
2014 - 2016 Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Board
of Governors
2011 - 2014 Economist, Federal Reserve Board
of Governors
2009 - 2011 Economist, Center for Economic
Studies, U.S. Census
Bureau
2001 - 2003
Economic Analyst, Georgetown
Economic Services, LLC
Visiting Positions
2021-2023 Visiting Professor, Advanced
Research Methods, American
Economic Association Summer Program, Howard University
2018
Visiting Academic, University of Oxford, Department of
Economics
Affiliations
Member, Conference on
Research in Income and Wealth
Special Sworn Status Researcher, U.S. Census Bureau
Other Activities
2015-Present Project
Advisor, Data Analysis and Financial Literacy in R (Econ-181
and predecessor), Howard
University and Federal
Reserve Board of Governors
Education
2009 Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown
University
2005 M.A., Economics, Georgetown University
2001 B.A., Economics, International Affairs, The
George Washington University
Working Papers
Trade
Liberalization and Labor Market Gains: Evidence from US
Matched Employer-Employee Data. 2023. Joint
with Peter
Schott and Cristina
Tello-Trillo.
Disentangling the Effects of the
2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S.
Manufacturing Sector. 2022. Joint with Aaron
Flaaen. Working Paper Version (2019): Finance
and Economics Discussion Series 2019-066. Washington:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Tariff Rate Uncertainty and the
Structure of Supply Chains. 2021. Joint with Sebastian
Heise, Georg
Schaur and Peter Schott.
Evidence
for the Effects of Mergers on Market Power and Efficiency.
2016. Joint with Bruce Blonigen.
NBER Working Paper WP22750.
Trade
Liberalization and International Sourcing of Inputs.
2012.
Publications
Bill of Lading Data in
International Trade Research With an Application to
the COVID-19 Pandemic. 2023. Review of
International Economics 31(3): pp.
1146-1172. Joint with Flaaen, Haberkorn, Lewis,
Monken, Rhodes, and Yi. FEDS
Working Paper. Cite.
Did Trade Liberalization with China
Influence U.S. Elections? 2022. Journal
of International Economics 139 (November,
103652). Joint with Yi Che, Yi Lu, Peter
Schott, and Zhigang
Tao. NBER Working Paper WP22178.
Replication
Directory. Cite.
Trade
Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties.
2020. American Economic Review: Insights 2(1):
pp. 47-64. Joint with Peter
Schott. NBER Working Paper WP22849.
Cite.
- Supplements: Online
Appendix; Programs;
Data;
and Replication
Readme.
- Media: Vox (2017.10.19); Slate
(2017.05.17); CBS
News
(2017.03.29); Washington
Post (2017.03.03); Boston
Globe
(2016.12.27); Der
Spiegel
(2016.12.16); NPR
(2016.12.8); Vox (2016.11.30); Fortune
(2016.11.29); Business
Insider
(2016.11.26), WSJ
(2016.11.28), Fortune
(2016.11.24), Daily
Mail
(2016.11.24), Slate
(2016.11.23), Washington
Post
(2016.11.23), WSJ
(2016.11.23), Bloomberg
(2016.11.22), Forbes
(2016.02.15)
- Policy Speeches: Chair
Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
(2017.12.05); Governor Lael Brainard, Federal Reserve Board
of Governors (2017.09.26); Governor Lael Brainard, Federal Reserve Board of
Governors (2017.05.22)
- AEA
Research Highlight
- Previous Version: November
2016
Investment
Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S.
Industries and Establishments. 2018. Journal
of International Economics 115: pp. 203-222. Joint
with Peter Schott. NBER Working
Paper WP24071.
Cite.
New
Perspectives on the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment.
2018. Journal of Economic Perspectives 32(2):
pp. 47-72. Joint with Teresa
Fort and Peter Schott. NBER Working
Paper WP24490.
Cite.
The
Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment.
2016. American Economic Review 106(7): pp.
1632-1662. This is a revised version of NBER Working
Paper WP18655.
Published
version and appendix. Joint with Peter
Schott. Cite.
Antidumping Duties
and Plant-Level Restructuring. 2013. Review of
Industrial Organization 42 (4): pp. 435-447.
Invited Submission. Cite.
Are All
Trade Protection Policies Created Equal? Empirical Evidence
for Nonequivalent Market Power Effects of Tariffs and Quotas.
2013. Journal of
International Economics 89 (2): pp. 369-378.
NBER Working Paper (WP16391).
Joint with Bruce
Blonigen, Benjamin
Liebman and Wesley Wilson.
The published version is available here.
Cite.
A Concordance
Between U.S. Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product
Classes and Industries. 2012. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement
37(1-2): pp. 61-96. NBER Working Paper WP15548.
Joint with Peter Schott. Data Appendix.
Cite.
Concording
U.S. Harmonized System Codes Over Time. 2012. Journal of Official
Statistics 28 (1): pp. 53-68. NBER Working
Paper WP14837.
Joint with Peter Schott. Data Appendix.
Cite.
Plant-Level
Responses to Antidumping Duties: Evidence from U.S.
Manufacturers. 2011.
Journal of International Economics. 85 (2): pp. 222-233. The
published version is available here.
Cite.
Applied and Other
Research
Factors
Affecting Recent U.S. Tariffs on Imports from China.
2021. FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System, February 17, 2021,
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2863. Joint with
Aaron Flaaen and Kathryn Langemeier.
The
Evolution of U.S. Manufacturing. 2020. VoxEU. Joint with
Teresa Fort and Peter Schott.
Trade
Policy Uncertainty May Affect the Organization of Firms'
Supply Chains. 2019. Liberty Street Economics, Federal
Reserve Bank of New York. Joint with Sebastian Heise,
Georg Schaur, and Peter Schott.
The
Costs of US Trade Liberalisation with China Have Been Acute
for Some Workers. 2019. In Meredith Crowley (Ed.), Trade
War: The Clash of Economic Systems Threatening Global
Prosperity, CEPR Press. Joint with Peter Schott.
US
Manufacturing Jobs and Trade Liberalization with China.
2018. Microeconomic
Insights. Joint with Peter Schott.
Some
Characteristics of the Decline in Manufacturing Capacity
Utilization. 2018. FEDS Notes. Washington: Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 1, 2018,
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2162. Joint with Emily
Wisniewski.
The
Distributional Consequences of US Trade Liberalization with
China. 2017. In Simon Evenett (Ed.), Cloth
for Wine? The Relevance of Ricardo's Comparative Advantage
in the 21st Century, CEPR Press. Joint with
Peter Schott.
Making Sense of Africa's
Infrastructure Endowment: A Benchmarking Approach. 2009.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper (WBPS4912). Joint with
Vivien Foster and Tito Yepes.
Productive
Infrastructure and Logistics Services for Competitiveness.
2006. Joint with Tito Yepes. Chapter in Infrastructure Service Provision
in El Salvador: Fighting Poverty, Resuming Growth.
Costa
Rica's
Infrastructure: Contributor or Bottleneck to Growth?
2006. Joint with Tito Yepes. Chapter in Costa Rica Country Economic
Memorandum: The Challenges for Sustained Growth.
Keynote/Broad Topic Presentations
"Assessing the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs." Annual Macro
Meetings at Georgetown (2023.05.04)
"Examining the Decline in U.S. Manufacturing Employment."
American University Mathematics and Statistics Colloquium
(2020.01.21)
"Examining the Decline in U.S. Manufacturing Employment."
Keynote Address, Federal Statistical Research Data Center
Annual Conference, Pennsylvania State University (2018.09.07)
"Trade Liberalization With a Developing Country: Effects and
Implications." Department of International Trade, United
Kingdom (2017.09.28)
"The Impact of Trade on U.S. Labor Markets: What Do We Know?"
Council on Foreign Relations (2016.09.28)
Presentations by
Paper
"Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a
Globally Engaged U.S. Manufacturing Sector" - Mid-Atlantic
Trade Workshop, Duke University (2019.11.02); Federal Reserve
Board (2020.05.06); International Trade Club of Chicago
(2020.06.11); Yale University (2020.10.28); University of
Groningen (2021.02.04); Washington Area International Trade
Symposium (2021.04.29); TIGN Inter-American Development Bank
(2021.05.27); Dusseldorf Institute for Competition Economics
(2021.07.20); United States International Trade Commission
(2021.10.26); Southern Economic Association (2022.11.20);
Midwest International Economics Group (2022.04.29); George
Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government
(2022.11.08); Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2023.03.21)
"Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from
U.S. Industries and Establishments" - NBER Trade and Labor
Markets Conference (2017.10.21); Center for Economic Studies
(2018.4.12); Washington Area International Trade Symposium
(2018.04.27); National Association of Realtors (2018.09.28)
"Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S.
Counties" - Washington International Trade Group (2016.01.21);
The World Bank (2016.02.23); U.S. Centers for Disease Control
(2016.02.25); ERWIT Copenhagen (2016.06.01); College of
William and Mary (2016.09.16); Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis (2017.02.24); Tulane University (2017.03.10); Dartmouth
College (2017.05.23); University of Cambridge (2017.09.29);
American University (2018.01.29)
"Did Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S.
Elections?" - CESifo Venice Summer Institute (2018.06.05);
Indiana University (2018.09.19); Georgia Tech (2019.03.29);
Drexel University (2019.04.26); Atlanta Trade Workshop
(2019.12.07)
"Trade Policy and the Structure of Supply Chains" - University
of Oregon (2015.10.13); Inter American Development Bank
(2016.06.17); U.S. International Trade Commission (2020.01.30)
"Evidence for the Effect of Mergers and Acquisitions on Market
Power and Efficiency" - Stanford RDC Conference (2015.09.18);
Midwest Economic Association (2016.04.02); IIOC (2016.04.16);
Aarhus University (2016.11.29); U.S. Department of Justice
(2017.05.16); Federal Reserve System Applied Micro Conference,
San Francisco Fed (2019.05.17)
"The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing
Employment" - Georgetown University (2014.10.24); Renmin
University of China (2014.04.25); Shanghai University of
Finance and Economics (2014.04.22); Syracuse University
(2013.12.02); University of Richmond (2013.11.18); Empirical
Investigations in International Trade, University of Virginia
(2013.10.19); Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data
(2013.09.18); NBER Summer Institute - International Trade and
Investment (2013.07.11); CESifo Conference on the Economics of
Firm Exporting (2013.04.26); University of Hong Kong
(2013.02.27); U.S. International Trade Commission
(2013.02.21); The George Washington University (2013.02.12);
Washington, DC International Trade Research Group
(2013.01.31); Southern Economic Association (2011.11.21);
Council of Economic Advisors, Executive Office of the
President (2011.07.07); Georgetown Center for Economic
Research (2011.06.02); Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
(2011.05.13); Advances in International Trade: Trade Empirics
(2010.11.19); Center for Economic Studies (2010.10.21).
"Are All Trade Protection Policies Created Equal? Empirical
Evidence for Nonequivalent Market Power Effects for Tariffs
and Quotas" - University of Wisconsin Milwaukee (2012.04.27);
University of Wisconsin Whitewater (2012.04.25); University of
Virginia (2011.08.31); Southern Economic Association Meetings
(2010.11.21); Vassar College (2010.10.25); Midwest
International Trade and Theory Meetings (2010.09.17); Center
for Economic Studies (2010.04.01).
"Plant-Level Responses to Antidumping Duties: Evidence from
U.S. Manufacturers" - Shanghai University of Finance and
Economics (2014.04.24); Federal Reserve Board of Governors
(2011.05.27); Midwest Economic Association (2010.03.21);
Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data Meetings (2009.10.02);
Econometric Society North American Summer Meetings
(2009.06.04); Midwest International Economics Group
(2009.05.01); George Washington University/World Bank
Antidumping Conference (2009.04.09); Georgetown University
(2008.10.20); Center for Economic Studies (2008.10.02).
Trade Liberalization and International Sourcing of Inputs -
Southern Economic Association (2012.11.16).